Free Agent Prediction Part 2

You may not like free agent predictions….but I do. I realize they’re wildly inaccurate, and impossible to justify, but isn’t that what the market basically is, anyway? Today is part two of the free agent predictions, and since I forgot to do them yesterday, tonight will be part three. I probably better hustle these out with free agency opening last night, huh? Part one can be found here.

Day 2 (11-20):

DH David Ortiz – Mariners
3B Aramis Ramirez – Orioles
SP Mark Buehrle – Cardinals
OF Coco Crisp – Giants
OF Michael Cuddyer – Rockies
CL Jon Papelbon – Blue Jays
OF Josh Willingham – Indians
SP Javy Vazquez – Marlins/Retire
1B Carlos Pena – Indians
2B Kelly Johnson – Twins

Rationale:

I see Ortiz headed back to where it all started. Seattle is starved for offense, and DH types don’t often have a huge market. I think Ramirez goes to Baltimore, with Reynolds, Davis, and Guerrero left to fight over remaining 1B/DH at bats. I can’t exactly say why I like Buehrle to the Cards, it just feels right. Crisp to the Giants seems to have some solid steam. He wants to stay on the left coast, and the Giants need offense from the CF spot. Cuddyer’s likely to have a ton of suitors, but I think it’ll come down to who offers him the most dough.

Like Ortiz and the DH spot, closer types are also hard to gauge. The Blue Jays are a team on the cusp of contending – in my view – and a closer is a luxury for a team like that. Willingham would obviously start over Shelley Duncan in LF in Cleveland, and should command a lesser price tag than Cuddyer, whose a similar hitter. There’s significant speculation that Vazquez may retire, but I have heard the Marlins are confident that enough cash will change his mind. Maybe one year and $10 million, I’d wager. With Pena, I had a hard time choosing where to place him. He may well go to Milwaukee or St. Louis to replace potentially departing 1B in those places too. I know what people will say about the Indians adding two bigger contracts in the offseason, but the Tribe have virtually nothing payroll-wise allocated to anyone after 2012. Literally, the Indians are committed to $3.75 million and most of that is Hafner’s pretty much guaranteed buyout of $2.75 million, and a bunch of pre-arb types. Finally, I think the Twins wise up and see that the shortstop market may be tough to crack, and pull a second baseman while shifting Alexi Casilla to SS.

What are your thoughts?

About Brandon Warne

Sportswriter trying to make it.
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3 Responses to Free Agent Prediction Part 2

  1. dheis says:

    My issue with bring in Pena is the chance to bring back Thome who I see being cheaper than Pena. Hadn’t thought of bringing on Willingham but I’m afraid the front office likes crowe and such in our minors too much to go out and spend any real money on free agent outfielders…

  2. I don’t think it deters from whether or not Thome is a fit. It’s a hard sell with Pronk on the payroll either way, isn’t it?

  3. dheis says:

    I used to be a Pronk Fan but at this point he can’t honestly believe he is a major help to the team anymore. Quit getting hurt then we can talk again.

    Thome, according to ESPN, signed with Philly so I guess he is out of the picture…

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