Free Agent Prediction Part 1

You may not like free agent predictions….but I do. I realize they’re wildly inaccurate, and impossible to justify, but isn’t that what the market basically is, anyway?

FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron recently came out with a list of the top 50 available free agents this offseason. Today, I’ll start a series using this list to predict where I think all 50 49 will wind up (since Sabathia already inked an extension). This series will be 10 free agents a day, and will be finished on Friday.

Day 1 (the top 10):

1B Albert Pujols – Angels
SS Jose Reyes – Giants
SP CC Sabathia – Yankees
1B Prince Fielder – Blue Jays
SP C.J. Wilson – Red Sox
OF Carlos Beltran – Red Sox
SS Jimmy Rollins – Tigers
SP Hiroki Kuroda – Japan
SP Roy Oswalt – Rangers
SP Edwin Jackson – Angels

Rationale:

I think the Angels – who have a decent amount of cash coming off the books, especially after 2012 – bite the bullet and go big for Pujols. I know they have Trumbo and Morales, but I think back to back seasons of being spurned by big free agents will have new GM DiPoto looking to make a splash, and he does just that with a pair of World Series champs.

The Giants desperately need a shortstop – just like the rest of the league – and I think they’ll dig deep into their pockets for Reyes. I like Fielder to the Jays (they’ll be awesome next season), and think the Red Sox will want to make a couple moves to help dissipate the cloud of awfulness that’s sitting above Fenway Park.

Kuroda, Rollins, and Oswalt are nothing more than hunches. I don’t think the Dodgers can pony up the cash for Kuroda, and don’t know if he’s interested in pitching for the Angels. If he stays, I’d say it’s with the Halos or a dark horse might be the Mariners. I think Rollins to Detroit is a good move for both sides, as it moves Peralta to third and gives Rollins a good shot to get his career back in order. As for Oswalt, well, I know he loves Texas and I think he’d be a good short-term replacement for C.J. Wilson with Neftali Feliz staying in the pen.

Would love to hear some of your suggestions!

About Brandon Warne

Sportswriter trying to make it.
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5 Responses to Free Agent Prediction Part 1

  1. Chris Finstad says:

    I can’t imagine Pujols to Anaheim. Fielder to the Blue Jays is good, but I’m holding out hope he returns to Milwaukee. I also agree that the Blue Jays will be better next year, but won’t they need better pitching?

  2. We’re the same on Fielder, Reyes, Oswalt, and E-Jax. I’m still undecided on a few, especially Kuroda. Have him 50/50 going to Japan or Dodgers.

    With Rollings in DET does Peralta move to 3B?

  3. I can’t imagine not a single one of the nine going back to his team. I’d pick Rollins, Pujols, Reyes, and Wilson to stay with their current squads, in order of likelihood.

  4. Gun to my head, these guys stay: Pujols, Kuroda, Oswalt, and *maybe* Wilson.

  5. Pingback: Free Agent Prediction Part 2 | Brandon Warne

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